Apple posted yet more record figures last night. iPhone figures beat expectations at 39.3m sold (with 2w contribution from the new iPhone 6/plus) whilst iPad met expectations at 12.3m sold. iPod Touch numbers will be rolled into a new category (from Q1, the December quarter) called 'other products' and this will include Apple TV and Apple Watch.
So another 50m+ volume contribution to IMG's H1. Apple Q1 15 is obviously going to be huge.
Transcript:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2576865-apples-aapl-ceo-tim-cook-on-q4-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
Royalty numbers for IMG look to be fairly static for IMG this FY, despite Apple's best efforts. Mediatek is starting to ship the MT6595 (and MT8135 for tablets) in decent volumes but pretty much all their other high volume smartphone chips are Mali, and this trend continues into 2015 with the recently announced MT6735 (LTE). We await evidence of IMG recovering market share at MTK, and given the timescales indicated by HY, I would be expecting announcements at MWC in February. So we are looking at FY 15/16 before royalty volume growth begins again. I would also be hoping to see solid evidence of Ensigma volume growth in 15/16. As far as MIPS goes, we need some big wins before anyone actually believes the talk (not just ecosystem initiatives).
IMG
Tuesday, 21 October 2014
Friday, 19 September 2014
Post AGM Thoughts
Back at Padders en route home with the inevitable delays on FGW. Some things never change.
Despite my desire to give everyone a right royal kicking today for failing to provide what we want when we want it in terms of PR, unit delivery, license creation, etc once you get in front of the Pied Piper of Kings Langley it's hard not to fall under his spell. Some things never change.
Even when you still feel from his answers that he is a little oversensitive to suggestions that things seemed to have been presented in a less than straight bat way you can still be swayed. Some things never change.
When you hear that there are great things coming over the hill in a couple of years you can't help but think you've heard something similar a few times before. Some things never change.
You enjoy the demo room, some parts of which are now like dear, dusty old friends, you meet the usual suspects, who by now you see more often than many of our oldest friends, you enjoy the hospitality. Some things never change.
But some things change. Some things make you feel there is a difference in the air. Sometimes you sense that this time, yes THIS time, the shiny thing you see over there just beyond your clear sight is actually the light at the end of the tunnel and not the jackdaw's bauble that's been intermittently catching your eye.
Is this one of those things ? Who knows, these things are so fraught with obstacles that it's hard to see the finishing line for them.
Not this year, that's for sure, be in no doubt that H1 is going to be an absolute disaster in terms of financial performance. But H2 will see a substantial improvement (over an admittedly woeful H1) and next year will see some level of improvement from already signed older licenses in many fields (yes! we will finally see some Ensigma units).
But if you're hoping that next year will be Shangri La then you may also be disappointed.
The huge number of licenses signed last year are almost worthless per deal (£38m for 100+ licenses) there is huge hope for results from more of these than normal.
Teams are in the East repairing relationships, things are positive in terms of tech news from the west, we have repelled some patent trolling mo-fo's apparently and we have enough cash to pay for the last building and any further work we need to do in terms of cash flow
We are, I believe, truly 2 years from majorly improved results. Some things never change.
Despite my desire to give everyone a right royal kicking today for failing to provide what we want when we want it in terms of PR, unit delivery, license creation, etc once you get in front of the Pied Piper of Kings Langley it's hard not to fall under his spell. Some things never change.
Even when you still feel from his answers that he is a little oversensitive to suggestions that things seemed to have been presented in a less than straight bat way you can still be swayed. Some things never change.
When you hear that there are great things coming over the hill in a couple of years you can't help but think you've heard something similar a few times before. Some things never change.
You enjoy the demo room, some parts of which are now like dear, dusty old friends, you meet the usual suspects, who by now you see more often than many of our oldest friends, you enjoy the hospitality. Some things never change.
But some things change. Some things make you feel there is a difference in the air. Sometimes you sense that this time, yes THIS time, the shiny thing you see over there just beyond your clear sight is actually the light at the end of the tunnel and not the jackdaw's bauble that's been intermittently catching your eye.
Is this one of those things ? Who knows, these things are so fraught with obstacles that it's hard to see the finishing line for them.
Not this year, that's for sure, be in no doubt that H1 is going to be an absolute disaster in terms of financial performance. But H2 will see a substantial improvement (over an admittedly woeful H1) and next year will see some level of improvement from already signed older licenses in many fields (yes! we will finally see some Ensigma units).
But if you're hoping that next year will be Shangri La then you may also be disappointed.
The huge number of licenses signed last year are almost worthless per deal (£38m for 100+ licenses) there is huge hope for results from more of these than normal.
Teams are in the East repairing relationships, things are positive in terms of tech news from the west, we have repelled some patent trolling mo-fo's apparently and we have enough cash to pay for the last building and any further work we need to do in terms of cash flow
We are, I believe, truly 2 years from majorly improved results. Some things never change.
Initial thoughts
While they still vote on stuff. Seems GS is staying on the board ??? I thought he was off and wished him happy retirement earlier, do I feel silly now.
I've been boiling in the run up to this AGM to the point where I was mouthing off on the train while we were sat opposite one of the board members !
I don't think I've entirely had many/any of my serious concerns satisfied properly really as I really don't think SHY gets what we are all concerned about. I am sure he feels we are just continually wanting to see the SP going up and are only ever cheesed off when it doesn't, and that is a basic misunderstanding of what so many of us feel about this company we have invested so much time and money in. I still think he exhibits a very odd sense of naïveté with his belief that the best will always win out (check out MALI boss) and that customers will always be rational (check out Samsung, Intel, Mediatek, etc boss) but his enthusiasm remains undimmed and infectious.
You've got to love him. I just wish he'd be a bit more of a bastard when it comes to the business end of thing or at least hire a few more people around him who are not "so nice".
We need more bad to the bone folks.
I've been boiling in the run up to this AGM to the point where I was mouthing off on the train while we were sat opposite one of the board members !
I don't think I've entirely had many/any of my serious concerns satisfied properly really as I really don't think SHY gets what we are all concerned about. I am sure he feels we are just continually wanting to see the SP going up and are only ever cheesed off when it doesn't, and that is a basic misunderstanding of what so many of us feel about this company we have invested so much time and money in. I still think he exhibits a very odd sense of naïveté with his belief that the best will always win out (check out MALI boss) and that customers will always be rational (check out Samsung, Intel, Mediatek, etc boss) but his enthusiasm remains undimmed and infectious.
You've got to love him. I just wish he'd be a bit more of a bastard when it comes to the business end of thing or at least hire a few more people around him who are not "so nice".
We need more bad to the bone folks.
hammerd2 questions
As SHY is always totally swamped afterwards I tried to make my in meeting questions specific to him in the expectation that the other concerns can be referred to less busy people during the informal part of the process.
And so to lunch. When they've finished voting on stuff.
And so to lunch. When they've finished voting on stuff.
PF
SHY also mentioned that if we needed to show good numbers or get cash we could just go get a mortgage for the property we own pretty much outright or the data centre.
Other guy also asked where margins would go and was told that we were probably at the low point.
Pete Frost question
We've got less cash now than we've had for years, should we be worried about a need to have a rights issue situation ?
No. We've got £23m buffer facility which we haven't touched, nor do we see the need to touch it. We see few millions positive cash in next year or so, then 10m's and increasing thereafter.
No. We've got £23m buffer facility which we haven't touched, nor do we see the need to touch it. We see few millions positive cash in next year or so, then 10m's and increasing thereafter.
Richard Woolaston question
We've had times of profits and now we're in a loss situation while investing heavily, when are we going to be actually monetising the investments or are we going to be eternally re-investing.
Answer is basically we got unlucky in timing where we got shafted by conditions when we were heavily investing in the future businesses. Expectations 2-4 years for return to increasing profit levels better than the old days.
HY said he wouldn't be invested in IMG if we were only graphics "because ARM would have pressured us in the low end - which they did..."
"I only invest in business directions where I see profits at the end of it. I hate blue sky thinking without money at the end"
Answer is basically we got unlucky in timing where we got shafted by conditions when we were heavily investing in the future businesses. Expectations 2-4 years for return to increasing profit levels better than the old days.
HY said he wouldn't be invested in IMG if we were only graphics "because ARM would have pressured us in the low end - which they did..."
"I only invest in business directions where I see profits at the end of it. I hate blue sky thinking without money at the end"
Hammerd2 question
It went on a bit, expressed disappointment with the level of communication of the downside stuff over the past 18 months and the lack of successful forecasting. SHY said its easy to underestimate from the outside how serious the waves were through the exits of the big semis.
Doesn't accept they could have done any different.
Asked where the old SoC table went - claims they can't do it any longer as they simply don't know. I don't 100% buy this as they must have some idea but he says they can't just knock out a table when they can't give real numbers, so he has a point I guess.
Asked how it is that there is now 100+ licensees only generating £38m. Answer is that whereas previously there were only a small number of licensees paying more there are now far more licensees paying less but making it easier for many more people to be able to make SoCs - thus hopefully evening out the peaks and troughs a little if some end up sinking without trace or leaving the market entirely.
I asked if they felt the business model (developing major IP categories with a view to high value licensing to an initial limited number of customers) was now out of date as most of them have now disappeared. Was basically referred to the previous answer as eg RT is expected to be able to go to many more smaller companies.
Again reiterated that he saw the first implementations in a "console or console type product" for which I can only read an Apple TV type of product as the mainstream consoles are now largely PC type product based with add in cards, yet RT seems only now to be designed for a mobile chip type of deployment.
Doesn't accept they could have done any different.
Asked where the old SoC table went - claims they can't do it any longer as they simply don't know. I don't 100% buy this as they must have some idea but he says they can't just knock out a table when they can't give real numbers, so he has a point I guess.
Asked how it is that there is now 100+ licensees only generating £38m. Answer is that whereas previously there were only a small number of licensees paying more there are now far more licensees paying less but making it easier for many more people to be able to make SoCs - thus hopefully evening out the peaks and troughs a little if some end up sinking without trace or leaving the market entirely.
I asked if they felt the business model (developing major IP categories with a view to high value licensing to an initial limited number of customers) was now out of date as most of them have now disappeared. Was basically referred to the previous answer as eg RT is expected to be able to go to many more smaller companies.
Again reiterated that he saw the first implementations in a "console or console type product" for which I can only read an Apple TV type of product as the mainstream consoles are now largely PC type product based with add in cards, yet RT seems only now to be designed for a mobile chip type of deployment.
Financial Yawn
Numbers time.
For some reason taking 3x as many deals to make the same money is "a good thing". Not sure I see how, apart from losing 1 or 2 isn't likely to kill us dead, unless it were to be Apple of course. There's barely anyone else big enough now to really make a huge difference if they walked.
Despite admitting that competition has cut into sales of radios, it seems our response has been simply to be to concentrate on the higher price range.
How this means we still need to fill almost the whole of the new building with PURE people I have no idea. I'd have thought offing the operation would be better but the boss re-iterated we weren't getting rid of it so we're still lumbered.
Non-MIPS now t hit 1bn in 3 years. Hmm... That sounds familiar.
For some reason taking 3x as many deals to make the same money is "a good thing". Not sure I see how, apart from losing 1 or 2 isn't likely to kill us dead, unless it were to be Apple of course. There's barely anyone else big enough now to really make a huge difference if they walked.
Despite admitting that competition has cut into sales of radios, it seems our response has been simply to be to concentrate on the higher price range.
How this means we still need to fill almost the whole of the new building with PURE people I have no idea. I'd have thought offing the operation would be better but the boss re-iterated we weren't getting rid of it so we're still lumbered.
Non-MIPS now t hit 1bn in 3 years. Hmm... That sounds familiar.
Takeaway Slide #2
Is slide 41. I knew he wouldn't forget...ahem.
Finally admitted (sort of) that they made a mistake ignoring the low end.
Still talks about us as though we're #1 for GPU.
MIPS only 8%, still aiming for 25%. Can't get through to ask 25% of what though !
Expects us to be #1 or 2 in each market.
Finally admitted (sort of) that they made a mistake ignoring the low end.
Still talks about us as though we're #1 for GPU.
MIPS only 8%, still aiming for 25%. Can't get through to ask 25% of what though !
Expects us to be #1 or 2 in each market.
What are we about ?
Scalable IP, configurable platforms is what we are about.
Then starts talking about PURE !!! Same line about "if you knew what's coming" has been wheeled out. Still only talking about DAB and multi-room though. Is there really anything else ?
Then starts talking about PURE !!! Same line about "if you knew what's coming" has been wheeled out. Still only talking about DAB and multi-room though. Is there really anything else ?
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)